When Turning Point USA announced plans to endorse J.D. Vance for president in 2028, it wasn’t just another political endorsement—it was a legacy. On November 22, 2025, Erika Kirk, CEO of Turning Point USA, revealed during a live appearance on Megyn Kelly’s show in Glendale, Arizona that her late husband, Charlie Kirk, had made supporting Vance’s 2028 run one of his final intentions before his assassination on September 15, 2025, at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. "That was the thing my husband was very direct about," Kirk said. "It was, interestingly enough, one of the last few conversations we had—how intentional he was about supporting JD for ‘28." But here's the thing: this isn’t just about grief or legacy. It’s about momentum. A November 24, 2025, poll from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center in Manchester, New Hampshire, found that 57% of registered Republican voters there support Vance if he runs in 2028. That’s not just a lead—it’s a commanding one. Among Democrats, Pete Buttigieg leads with 28%, followed by Gavin Newsom at 24% and Kamala Harris at just 6%. The numbers suggest Vance isn’t just a Trump loyalist—he’s becoming a standard-bearer for a new generation of GOP voters.
A Legacy in Motion
Erika Kirk didn’t just inherit the CEO role after Charlie Kirk’s death. She inherited his mission. Within weeks of his murder, she took over his university tour initiative, speaking at the University of Mississippi in Oxford on October 12, 2025. She also stepped into the host chair for The Charlie Kirk Show podcast on October 20, 2025, featuring Trump administration insiders. It was a symbolic passing of the torch—and a signal to the right that Turning Point USA would remain a force, even without its founder. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, didn’t hold back. In an October 28, 2025, interview with Lara Lea Trump, he said: "I think JD Vance would be a great nominee... He’s a close friend, and I hope he intends to do it." That’s not just a casual comment—it’s a high-level Republican official publicly positioning Vance as a viable successor.Vance’s Own Words: Wait Until After the Midterms
Yet Vance himself remains cautious. In a November 18, 2025, interview with Fox News, he said plainly: "We’re going to win the midterms. We’re going to do everything we can to win the midterms. And then after that, I’m going to sit down with the president of the United States and talk to him about it." He didn’t say he wouldn’t run. He didn’t say he would. He just said: not yet. That’s strategic. And smart. The November 4, 2026, midterm elections are the real battleground. If Republicans hold the House and expand their Senate majority, Vance’s credibility as a unifier and campaigner will skyrocket. If they lose? His 2028 chances crater.
The Trump Shadow
Here’s the twist: Vance’s biggest asset might also be his biggest liability. While 57% of GOP voters in New Hampshire support him, AOL News reported on November 27, 2025, that experts believe his association with Donald J. Trump could be "collapsing" his lead. No polling data was provided. Just a warning. And it’s not baseless. Trump’s polarizing brand still divides the party. Some moderates fear Vance is too tied to him. Others see him as the natural heir. And now, there’s a new player: Donald Trump Jr.. According to The Independent on November 26, 2025, Trump Jr. is gaining traction among younger conservatives. He’s not officially in the race—but he’s testing the waters. That means Vance doesn’t just have to win over Trump voters. He has to win over Trump’s kids’ voters too.Why This Matters
This isn’t just about who runs in 2028. It’s about what the GOP becomes. Is it still the party of Trump? Or is it evolving into something more institutional, more policy-driven, less personality-based? Vance’s rise suggests the latter. His background as a former Marine, a Yale grad, and a bestselling author gives him a different kind of gravitas than the typical MAGA figure. But here’s the quiet tension: Turning Point USA’s endorsement is rooted in Charlie Kirk’s vision. And Charlie Kirk was, above all, a Trump loyalist. So if Vance runs, he’ll be running as the candidate of a movement that still worships Trump—even if he himself wants to move beyond him.
What Comes Next
The next 13 months will be decisive. The 2026 midterms will test voter enthusiasm. Vance’s campaign staff will quietly begin assembling. Donors will start testing the waters. And Trump—still the most powerful voice in the party—will either signal his backing, stay silent, or quietly nudge his son forward. The Republican Party is at a fork. Vance could be the bridge. Or he could be the first casualty of its internal war.Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Erika Kirk pushing JD Vance now, after her husband’s death?
Erika Kirk says supporting Vance was one of Charlie Kirk’s final intentions before his September 2025 assassination. She’s honoring his legacy while maintaining Turning Point USA’s influence in GOP politics. Her public endorsement isn’t just emotional—it’s strategic, positioning the organization as a kingmaker in the 2028 primary.
How reliable is the 57% support number for JD Vance?
The 57% figure comes from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center, a respected nonpartisan polling group established in 1998 with a strong track record in New Hampshire. While early, it’s one of the most credible indicators of GOP primary sentiment. Still, national polls may differ, and voter preferences shift dramatically after major events like the midterms.
Could JD Vance’s ties to Donald Trump hurt his 2028 chances?
Yes, potentially. While Trump remains popular with the GOP base, newer voters and moderates are wary of his legal troubles and combative style. Vance has tried to position himself as a thinker, not just a loyalist. If he can’t distance himself enough from Trump’s controversies without alienating the base, his general election prospects could suffer.
Who are Vance’s main rivals in the 2028 GOP field?
Donald Trump Jr. is emerging as a serious contender, especially among younger conservatives. Ron DeSantis remains a wildcard, and potential candidates like Tim Scott or Kristi Noem could enter. But right now, Vance leads in early polling, and his institutional backing from Turning Point USA gives him a unique organizational edge.
Why hasn’t JD Vance officially declared his candidacy yet?
Vance is playing the long game. He knows the 2026 midterms will determine whether Republicans have momentum heading into 2028. Declaring too early risks alienating Trump, who still holds enormous sway. By waiting, Vance keeps his options open—and maintains his position as vice president, where he’s building a record of governance.
What role does Turning Point USA play in shaping GOP primaries?
With 1,200 employees and a campus network across 50 states, Turning Point USA mobilizes young conservatives, runs digital campaigns, and influences primary voters through social media and campus outreach. Their endorsement doesn’t guarantee victory, but it signals to donors and activists that a candidate has grassroots energy—which can be decisive in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
